The governors of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have recommended a zoning formula for the choice of the presiding and principal officers of the 10th session of the National Assembly for the consideration of the president-elect, Bola Tinubu.
The governors under the aegis of Progressives Governors Forum (PGF) recommended the zoning of the Senate President to either the South-east or the South-south regions and the Speaker of the House of Representatives to either the North-west or the North-central regions.
They also proposed that the positions of Majority Leader, Deputy Majority Leader, Chief Whip, and Deputy Chief Whip of both should be used as compensation for those that may be asked to step down from running for the four presiding officers’ positions.
According to a memo obtained exclusively by PREMIUM TIMES, the governors reached the decisions at a meeting held on 8 April.
“The President-Elect, Vice President-Elect, and the National Working Committee of the APC need to meet urgently with the PGF and APC Caucuses of the National Assembly under the auspices of National Caucus and NEC to debate and adopt a zoning formula for the leadership of the two Houses.
“The PGF met in plenary and proposes the following as basis for consideration of the President-Elect and the Party:
a. Senate President – South-East or South-South or North-Central
b. Deputy Senate President – North-Central or North-West
c. Speaker of the House – North-Central or North-West
d. Deputy Speaker of the House – South-East or South-South
“Other principal officer positions may be offered by the Party to compensate those that may be required to withdraw from the races or step down include:
a. Majority Leader
b. Deputy Majority Leader
c. Chief Whip, and
d. Deputy Chief Whip
“Above for your consideration and expedited action please,” the memo said.
The governors agreed to forward the memo, signed by the PGF Chairman and Kebbi State Governor, Atiku Bagudu, to Mr Tinubu for “expedited action”.
However, it is not clear if the memo has been sent to the president-elect who is currently in Europe.
APC Composition in NASS
The ruling APC had after the 25 February election, emerged as the party with the majority in the 109-member Senate with its 57 elected senators.
However, it has yet to form a comfortable majority in the 360-member House of Representatives as it currently has 162 members-elect.
Seven other parties with membership in the 10th session of the House have about 163 members-elect.
The numbers are expected to increase after the supplementary elections held across the country on Saturday. The elections were held in 31 federal constituencies and five senatorial Districts.
Both chambers of the National Assembly will be inaugurated in June during which the presiding officers will be elected.
Current zoning formula
In the current ninth National Assembly which has APC members in the majority, Senate President Ahmad Lawan, a Muslim, is from the North-east while his deputy, Ovie Omo-Agege, a Christian, hails from the South-south zone.
In the lower chamber, the Speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila, a Muslim, comes from the South-west zone while the deputy speaker is from the North-central region.
Mr Gbajabiamila hails from the same zone as the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo.
The principal officers of both chambers come from different zones.
The surge of aspirants
PREMIUM TIMES reported that about 10 aspirants have signified interest to be the Speaker of the House. They include Deputy Speaker Idris Wase (APC, Plateau), Yusuf Gagdi (APC, Plateau), Muktar Betara (APC, Borno), Sada Soli (APC, Katsina), Tunji Olawuyi (APC, Kwara) and Abubakar Makki (APC, Jigawa).
Others are Ben Kalu (APC, Abia), Miriam Onuoha (APC, Imo) Tajudeen Abbas (APC, Kaduna), and Aminu Jaji (APC, Zamfara).
Jibrin Barau (Kano), Abdulaziz Yari (Zamfara), Governor Dave Umahi (Ebonyi), Orji Kalu (Abia), Osita Izunanso (Imo), Godswill Akpabio (Akwa-Ibom), Sani Musa (Niger) are currently jostling for the Senate Presidency.
The report also explored how the same faith presidential ticket of the APC will affect the distribution of the National Assembly offices.
The Governors ‘full recommendations
As a course of action, the APC governors are proposing a meeting between Mr Tinubu, Vice President-elect Kashim Shettima, the APC governors, the National Working Committee of the party and the National Assembly caucuses “to debate and adopt a zoning formula for the leadership of the two Houses.”
They also proposed that other principal offices such as the Majority Leader, Deputy Majority Leader, Chief Whip, and Deputy Chief Whip should be used as compensation for those that may be asked to step down.
To make the arrangement work, the governors proposed that candidates from the South-west and North-east must be discouraged from running for any of the four principal offices since Messrs Tinubu and Shettima are from the two regions.
Monetisation of the process
The state chief executives noted that some aspirants for the positions are willing to offer as much as $1 million for a single vote.
They specifically expressed concerns that if the president-elect and the party fail to give direction, it may be too late to stop the aspirants.
“It is imperative that the President-Elect and the Party wade into this situation and announce an acceptable zoning formula as soon as possible. This is necessary to prevent over-investment by candidates, which leads to acrimony and bitterness. New Senators-elect and members-elect are being offered thousands of dollars.
“Indeed, it is being rumoured that one aspirant for the Senate Presidency and another for Speakership are willing to offer as much as $500,000 to $1 million per vote. Opposition party members of the National Assembly are being courted with the likelihood of the 2015 situation presenting itself if care is not taken,” the memo reads in part.
Need for strategic calculations
Although the governors warned the lawmakers from using religion to campaign for the positions, they, however, conceded that the Senate President should be a Christian from the South-east, South-south or North-central parts of Nigeria.
They also expressed concerns about the status of the APC in the House of Representatives because of the slim majority the party may have
“Due to our expected slim majorities, candidate risk analysis and management of unreasonable ambitions must be carefully undertaken by the President-Elect and the APC national leadership to avoid the recurrence of the 2015 Saraki/Dogara debacle, more so in the case of the House of Representatives,” they stated.
The governors also listed six factors the party and Mr Tinubu must put into consideration in the zoning formula.
The factors include: “Electoral contribution towards Asiwaju’s victory in February 2023. Current number of APC Governors elected/re-elected in 2023. Positive prospects of expanded APC footprint by 2027.”
The others are: “Prioritize creating a sense of belonging to ‘electorally excluded’ parts of the country. Reward inclusive politics and signal adequate deterrence for exclusionary electoral conduct.”
Regional analysis
The South-east geopolitical zone did not get a favourable review from the governors.
They stated that the zone “contributed the least to Asiwaju’s victory, consistently exhibited the most exclusionary electoral conduct since the advent of the Fourth Republic, and yet also feels entitled to the Senate Presidency.”
They also stated the prospect of maintaining the two states it controls in the South-east is “somewhat uncertain.”
It is not clear why the governors expressed fear over Ebonyi and Imo states, the two states governed by the APC in the South-east. In the former, the party won the governorship election, and the governorship election in Imo State is not until November.
The governors appear to be more disposed to the South-south region. They noted that “the prospects of the APC expanding its footprint in Edo and Bayelsa States are quite high.”
Off-cycle governorship elections hold in Bayelsa in November and in Edo in 2024.
Governors rule out Oshiomhole, Umahi
However, two prospective candidates for the Senate Presidency, Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State and Adams Oshiomhole, senator-elect for Edo North were ruled out due to the rules of the National Assembly on ranking.
“Rules of both chambers of the National Assembly require that only ranking members can aspire to the top four elective vacancies. This provision effectively disqualifies former Governors Umahi and Oshiomhole from contesting the positions,” they stated.
On the North-west, the governors said with President Muhammadu Buhari leaving office, the region has a “sense of loss and exclusion from the top two positions and therefore feels entitled to the Senate Presidency.”
(Courtesy: Premium Times)
