If the move by some over-ambitious persons to draw the next general elections closer fails, the polls will be held in February 2027, the original date, approximately a year from now. Meaning, the polity is set for heightened politicking, the previous year having already witnessed an unprecedented dose of politics to the disadvantage of governance – the most visible sign being the manic defections of governors from rival parties, notably the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Party (APC).
One common denominator binds together virtually all the state chief executives who have so jumped ship: eye on their prospective second terms in office. Call it party betrayal. Call it shameless survival strategy. Call it long-throat. Or, blatant rape of the constitution and electoral act which appear weak and helpless in matters relating to the cross-carpeting of elected officials. Do such labels even matter now? Today, APC stands like an iroko enamoured against the scramble for nutrients, dominance and prominence of less endowed trees and shrubs. On the surface, at least.
Arithmetic favours the lopsided optics. The APC governed 20 states by the time President Bola Tinubu assumed power in May 2023. At the last count, nine more have been added to that number. And the migration may not have ended. These roving governors whose critics often describe as opportunists do not seem to bother about that appellation. Instead, they’re more interested in parading themselves as carriers and controllers of every strategic political structure in their states, claims that could still turn exaggerated and delusional as alignments, mobilisations and promotions progress. This is the year that may prove stubborn for the much-touted excuses of aligning erstwhile opposition states with Abuja in order to reap massive benefits. All things being equal.
But in the unpredictable arena of politics, especially of our favour-dispensing and patronage-wielding type, allegiances and outcomes can change quickly. There exists at the moment reasons some people swear that only gamblers would put their money, energy and hope into the parties and groups that are currently opposing the incumbent government. Can’t really blame them after watching and feeling the enormous powers of incumbency on display. There doesn’t seem to be limits to what holders of institutional authority and custodians of state resources can achieve. That includes clinging to positions against the wishes of the electorate. Well, the opposite happened in 2015 when, for the first time in the nation’s history, the then administration of PDP’s President Goodluck Jonathan was defeated by the APC presidential Candidate, Major General Muhammadu Buhari.
We shouldn’t forget, though, that times have changed and the circumstances aren’t the same. More still, Jonathan and Tinubu are two separate individuals both in character and conduct. Political scientists must be busy collecting data on the ongoing activities that are narrowing the country’s once truly competitive political space. The fear of Nigeria becoming a one-party entity is now palpable. And many analysts have fingered the president’s overriding push to pick another presidential term for this phenomenon. Credible as that may be, the other major actors can’t readily prove their own innocence. As hinted earlier, the ambitions of these political journeymen and women have equally blurred their vision and capacity to uphold pluralism, a key ingredient of functional democracy.
Undesirable as that is, our opposition politicians need to be properly advised that the form of democracy – one-party and all – practiced here could well be the least problem of Nigerians right now. Average citizens are more concerned with the critical issues of simple existence: subsistence, personal productivity (even if marginal), safety, relative liquidity, and access to basic amenities. They’ve seen the evolution of Nigeria’s governing systems from the colonial times to independence, military, various shades of republics, up to the present dispensation. Many of them wonder why their lives cannot be described as progressive in the true sense of the word. Promises made by one crowd of politicians soon give way to those pledged by yet another batch. Results, tangible and enduring outputs, have remained elusive. And the trend doesn’t look prepared to abate.
This largescale, longstanding disillusionment lends extra meaning and burden to the forthcoming elections. Next year, APC will clock 12 years as the driver of the federal government and over two third of the subnational administrations. Not to mention its overwhelming majority in the National Assembly and most of the state legislatures. Many of the arsenals and shortcomings it applied vigorously against the Jonathan government are now being packaged by its rivals for their offensive. Again, since ideological lines are absent between the parties – even for academic purposes – and all the people see are men and women struggling to clinch and deploy political power for selfish gains, the opposition figures would do well to approach this season differently.
Doing so would require being seen to be in serious pursuit of the general good, not the parochial actualisation of private aspirations, no matter how old. If things had gone the way they should, PDP would have been the best choice to withstand APC. But too many desertions, internal crises, external sabotages and litigations have left what was once Africa’s largest political platform fighting for its tortuous life. But, then, never say never. Earlier in the week, Jonathan told its leaders in Abuja what could be a desperately needed jab in the arm. The Dr Kabiru Turaki-led National Working Committee left the former president after presenting its “Rebirth Agenda” to him, receiving his assurances and also knowing that he was still a bona fide member of the PDP. Some encouragement, just about any boost, would do at this point.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) presents an even more intriguing picture. It was adopted in July last year by some frontline opposition leaders like Waziri Atiku Abubakar, Mr Peter Obi, Mr Rotimi Amaechi, Malam Nasir El Rufai and Senator David Mark as an alternative forum to edge Tinubu’s government. However, it was only in November and December that Abubakar and Obi officially decamped from PDP and Labour Party (LP) into ADC. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) is expected to join the train. The three men were their parties’ candidates on the 2023 presidential ballot. But hoping that their cumulative votes would simple flow into ADC this time would be utopian.
Nigeria’s political climate right now is somewhat cloudy. Prioritising the Nigerian people by adequately communicating to them the better economic, social and political options on offer is non-negotiable. Those warming up to remove Tinubu from the Villa mustn’t be perceived as a band of buccaneers bent on taking undue advantage of the longsuffering Nigerian masses. Even slaves are entitled to jubilees.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Ekpe, PhD, is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board
