It’s not a surprise that our political leaders are fixated on oil matters. Ever before the present times when even their counterparts in advanced nations cannot afford to keep their minds away from the fuel pumps in their countries, they always found ways to weave election promises around the affordability and availability of petroleum products. Many political office holders around the world have paid dearly for not keeping energy costs within the reach of their average citizens. And, at various points, these combustible commodities have determined the presence or absence of tranquillity in many places. That the world literally runs on energy is, therefore, not an overstatement.
But now, what obtains in Nigeria as it moves gradually towards the next general polls points to concerns that should be viewed outside the overall trajectory of a nation preoccupied with products which have defined much of its socio-political and economic history. Former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon’s fabled gaffe in the 1970s that money wasn’t Nigeria’s problem but how to spend it was inspired solely by the petrodollar windfalls during his regime. He inadvertently verbalised what eventually became the unseen, metaphysical gadget that has continued to manipulate what we do with these superabundant natural resources. Several other countries with similar credentials have since utilised theirs to secure their own present and future but, sadly, we don’t seem set yet to get rid of the albatross anytime soon.
Rather than convert our huge endowments to enablers of perpetual prosperity for the people, the persons who have accessed political power have, over the years, succeeded largely in squandering the opportunities through lack of vision, incompetence and self-aggrandizement. And now that we’re in a season to hear what those who aspire to occupy the country’s driver’s seat intend to do differently, the signals aren’t coherent and convincing enough. Painfully!
The politics of oil subsidy removal has, perhaps not surprisingly, taken the centre-stage. The import of this swelling drama shouldn’t be lost on us. President Bola Tinubu’s May 29, 2023 declaration that “fuel subsidy is gone!” is, arguably, Nigeria’s punchiest, crudest inauguration speech statement ever. His critics sometimes describe it as “cruellest”. He most probably wanted to demonstrate his readiness to confront one of the nation’s stubborn monsters frontally. Instructively, virtually all his major opponents in the election that produced his victory were unanimous on their desire to drop what they saw as a massive leakage in the country’s challenged revenue base.
The sorrows and tears that pronouncement and the naira floatation which followed it have brought upon the citizenry certainly motivated the Presidential Candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, to announce his plan to re-introduce the subsidy if elected next year. When reminded that it was a total reversal of his initial policy stand, the vow was modified to mean that the subvention would be for production, not downstream operations. But then, somersault is not strange to politics, especially in climes where being accountable to the populace is not a requirement for electoral victories. The ADC strongman knows both the game and his environment and he expects the people to be adequately moved by their perennial penury to want to vote out Tinubu.
The president’s other major challenger, Mr Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), has taken a more measured position on oil. He won’t jettison the prevailing order but would pursue a more transparent, responsive and responsible governance. He has – in his drawer – people-oriented economic programmes that would promote the reduction of hardship. One image Obi has managed to acquire over time is prudence. It would take more than rhetoric, though, to convince Nigerians that he can raise national leadership above the levels that successive heads of government have attained.
Not to sound alarmist, the stakes are getting higher without commensurate prospects. The shortage of original ideas about how to run the country in ways that give genuine hope to the people is on full display, unfortunately. The fact that voters are stuck with the same frontrunners in the last presidential election further dampens the morale, if not psyche, of many Nigerians. Only God knows what the man in the saddle truly thinks of the outcomes of the reforms he has imposed on the people. The preachments that the present sufferings will ultimately be instrumental to limitless enjoyment hereafter sound increasingly hollow. Paraded strides of foreign reserves improvements and stability in foreign exchange mean little or nothing to someone whose spending capability has drained away from him substantially. A stable local currency remains a fallacy, a hoax to whoever has any respectable memory to recall the rates only four years ago.
Quite intriguingly, Tinubu, Abubakar and Obi – the gentlemen pronounced winner, first runner-up, and second runner-up in that order by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2023 – are still here as the leading contestants, hoping to grab majority votes. Luckily for them, the mass media are treating them accordingly. Ranked fourth is Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who ran on the ticket of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) but is now in NDC as Obi’s vice-presidential candidate. We’re still saddled with the same ambitious, relentless politicians, you see.
As expected, the opposition figures in particular have started their campaigns with fuel issues – low hanging fruits that touch the very souls of the nation’s teeming poor. They would slash the costs into the ground, bla, bla, bla! There’s hardly any new thing the government can say about the subject now that the price of petrol has moved beyond one dollar per litre. It’s been trying to ascribe a chunk of the growing success of Dangote Refinery to its fiscal ingenuity. Well, good luck.
At this point, our political power seekers should, in God’s name, step out of the over-travelled road of dishing out empty and half-baked pledges to the despondent masses. They should also avoid messy, oily, smear fights. Accusations of the president’s cloudy certificates and drug dealings, Abubakar’s alleged shady businesses, and doubts about Obi’s university degree, among others – most of which are time-worn – are not likely to move Nigerians to any consequential actions, anyway. They’re too used to being ruled by self-centred, devious persons to be bothered by the purported stains on the current crop of campaigners. We can only appeal to Tinubu and co to show us how they can think outside the box and lead their fellow countrymen and women to a desirable destination.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Ekpe, PhD, is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board
X: @monday_ekpe2
