Oil prices jumped and most stock markets fell Thursday as investors weighed the prospects of a shaky Middle East ceasefire and a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, crucial to restoring oil and gas shipments.
Traders were also locking in profits from Wednesday’s relief rally as the first-quarter earnings season gets underway, which should show the war’s impact on company results worldwide.
Equity markets across the globe had soared and crude oil futures plunged Wednesday after US President Donald Trump announced the two-week halt in the war against Iran, and Tehran said it would reopen the waterway transporting one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas.
But the ceasefire has been placed in doubt, largely by Israel’s ongoing attacks against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Tehran has also said it will impose a toll on ships transiting Hormuz.
The main US oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, rebounded over five percent to reach almost $100 a barrel as international calls mounted for the ceasefire to be extended after a massive wave of Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed more than 200 people.
“Oil prices will likely remain elevated and choppy until a more permanent agreement is struck between all parties,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Anthony Kettle at RBC BlueBay Asset Management cautioned that “Even if the ceasefire holds it will take time for energy exports from the region to return to more normalised levels, so there will be an impact on growth and inflation that is still difficult to ascertain”.
“It should also be noted that there has been significant damage to infrastructure in some major energy exporters,” he said.
Wall Street stocks opened with losses, after losses on Europe’s main stock markets and across much of Asia.
“While progress towards a more permanent resolution in the Middle East will dominate short-term market moves, it’s earning power that drives stock prices in the long term,” Chiekrie said ahead of the first-quarter earnings season.
Some companies have already begun alerting markets to the impact of the war on their earnings for the January-March period, with the conflict having started on February 28.
