Just six months after Kemi Badenoch’s election as leader of the UK Conservative Party, internal talks have already begun about potentially replacing her.
With local elections in England approaching, many Conservative MPs and officials are increasingly dissatisfied with Badenoch’s leadership and have expressed concerns that she is not the right person to lead the party into the next general election, scheduled for 2029.
According to more than two dozen sources who spoke to Bloomberg on the condition of anonymity, there is growing support within the party to replace Badenoch with Robert Jenrick, the right-wing shadow justice secretary.
The discontent comes amid low polling numbers for the Tories and the perception that Badenoch, who became leader on November 2, 2024,has failed to address key issues, leaving the party vulnerable to challenges from Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. Badenoch’s spokesperson declined to comment on the situation, while Jenrick’s spokesperson pointed to an interview in which he expressed support for Badenoch’s leadership, suggesting people should give her time.
The situation is expected to worsen with the upcoming local elections, where the Conservatives are predicted to lose a significant number of seats. The Tories’ performance in these elections is crucial, as they are seen as an early indicator of the party’s standing ahead of the general election. In the last local election in 2021, the Conservatives won nearly half the races, bolstered by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout. However, since then, the party’s popularity has plummeted, and they are now facing their worst-ever performance.
Political analysts predict a “total wipe-out” for the Conservatives in the upcoming elections, with Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, calling it a “total and unmitigated disaster.” After briefly overtaking Labour in polls late last year, the Conservatives have fallen more than five percentage points behind both Labour and Reform, with the latter now emerging as a strong challenger on the right.
There had been an assumption that Badenoch would have until the summer of 2026 to prove herself, but some in the party now believe her leadership may be challenged sooner. A senior party figure described her as having entered the “political death zone,” with her future becoming a major topic of discussion among MPs and donors.
Badenoch inherited a difficult task when she succeeded Rishi Sunak in November 2023 following the Tories’ defeat in the general election, which saw Labour secure a historic landslide victory. While some defend Badenoch, arguing that rebuilding the party after such a heavy loss takes time, frustration is growing. Critics claim she has focused on issues like net-zero policies and transgender rights, which they argue do not resonate with voter priorities like crime and immigration.
Badenoch’s performances at prime minister’s questions have also drawn criticism. Her attempts to challenge Labour leader Keir Starmer have been seen as ineffective, with Starmer often turning her attacks back on the Conservatives’ own record. Meanwhile, Farage’s Reform Party has been steadily gaining ground, further complicating Badenoch’s position. Some MPs argue that she is too right-wing to appeal to centrist voters but not right-wing enough to compete with Farage’s populist appeal.
Jenrick, who has built a strong following on the Conservative right, is increasingly seen as a potential replacement. He has gained attention for his high-profile campaigns on crime and national sovereignty, and a recent poll found that he had a much higher satisfaction rating among Conservative members than Badenoch. However, some centrist Tories are concerned that Jenrick would push the party further to the right, potentially alienating voters in the center.
The situation remains fluid, with party figures divided on whether a leadership change would help the Conservatives recover or further alienate voters. Ultimately, the local election results will be pivotal in determining Badenoch’s future, with political analysts suggesting that if the media narrative shifts toward Farage’s rise rather than the Tories’ collapse, she may be able to maintain her leadership.
