The demise of the Edo State factional Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, going to the September gubernatorial election is certain now that the All Progressive Congress, APC, has settled for Ogbeide-Ihama as the running mate to Senator Monday Okpebholo. No doubt, this is a masterstroke from APC.
Hon. Ogbeide-Ihama comes with a lot of goodies to APC. First, he was elected twice to run as the House of Representative member representing the very populous Oredo Federal Constituency. He was the first individual to break that jinx of running twice. So he is ordinarily popular with the people. Secondly, he is still very young; he is in his late 40s, and this candidacy will speak to the teaming youth across the length and breadth of Edo State. Again, he is a member of the Legacy Coalition, a group headed by the charismatic leader, Chief Dan Osi Orbih. Without mincing words, the group, which has over 60% population of the state PDP will work with APC to see that they are elected basically because of Ogbeide-Ihama.
A source recently told me that Governor Obaseki has been calling members of the Legacy Coalition for meetings so that they can be reconciled to his own group in PDP. Only a handful attends as everyone is cautious to work with Obaseki. No politician in Edo State trusts him when it comes to promises. Even 80% of those working with him are not in favour of Asue, his preferred candidate.
It is obvious PDP will loose this election as APC is poised to go back to Osadebey Avenue. No doubt, PDP is in disarray. Of all the 9 aspirants who actually bought forms, only Hon. Omosedo Igbinedion has joined Obaseki to support Asue. The rest are still spoiling for war. While Comrade Philip is facing impeachment, which has certainly rattled the party because of bad timing, Hon. Anselm Ojezua, the former APC state chairman, is in court challenging the process of the PDP primary.
The issue of impeaching Comrade Philip is a very thoughtless idea by Obaseki and his goons in the House of Assembly because no one goes into such unecessary fight during an election. Apart from the fact that it is a distraction, Philip has garnered sympathy support from all corners of the state. Recently, there was a protest against the impeachment and the protesters warned that there will be dire consequence if it is not rescinded.
Another factor that will affect PDP is for the party to pick the cold Osarodion Ogie, the bloody cold Secretary to the State Government. He is in his 60s while Asue too is in his 60s. The Edo State youth will revolt with their votes. The people cannot afford a gerontocratic government – government of the old.
The calculation from APC is very apt: both Senator Monday and Asue are from Edo Central with just about 15% voting strength. And as we all know, they will certainly share the votes. With the emergence of Ogbeide-Ihama, Edo South will be a battleground. Olumide Akpata Esq will take some parts of the about 58% voting strength in the district while APC and PDP will share the rest. The deciding district will be Edo North, which is an aborigine land of the APC.
PDP has a lot of different huddles going into the election; the non-performance of the state government is one big factor that will work against his preferred candidate, Asue. Secondly, Obaseki has not been able to play the party politics the way he ought to; something that earned him his dismissal from APC.
So looking at the optics holistically, PDP should be electing its grave digger in Edo State, thanks to the warped type of politics Obaseki has played since 2020, and his inability to perform as expected in governance.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Odianose Joseph is a politician and public affairs analyst.
